While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Stressing that economic growth will only move upwards, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday pegged the GDP growth rate for the next financial year at 10.5 per cent, though a tad lower than the government's projection of 11 per cent. The projection is in line with the estimates in the Union Budget 2021-22 presented in Parliament earlier this week. The Economic Survey, tabled by the government in Parliament recently, has projected that the economy will grow at 11 per cent, up from an estimated historic decline of 7.7 per cent in 2020-21, on account of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Unperturbed by election uncertainty, investors poured record sums into equity mutual fund (MF) schemes in May, driving India closer to a $5 trillion market capitalisation. The Rs 34,697 crore net inflows into actively managed equity funds last month surpassed the previous high of Rs 28,463 crore recorded in March 2022. In April 2024, equity schemes had garnered nearly Rs 19,000 crore.
The GCC states comprise of Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Oman.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has identified "climate shocks" as a risk to food inflation rates and overall price rise while stating that the outlook for the country's economic growth remains bright. In its Annual Report for 2023-24, released on Thursday, the central bank said easing supply-chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation, and early indications of an above-normal southwest monsoon meant well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks, however, imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook," said the RBI while noting headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24.
The relationship between the US and India has been very productive, in particular on the trade and technology front, and 2023 can be considered the best year historically for bilateral ties, according to a former top American trade official. Arun Kumar, an Indian-American, who served as the assistant secretary of Commerce for Global Markets and director general of the US and Foreign Commercial Service (USFCS) during the Obama administration, said this during an interview with PTI in Washington. "Looking back on 2023, it was a very productive year for the US-India relationship, by many accounts the best year historically," he said.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
Fitch Ratings has cut India's economic growth forecast to 8.7 per cent for the current fiscal but raised GDP growth projection for FY23 to 10 per cent, saying the second COVID-19 wave delayed rather than derail the economic recovery. In its APAC Sovereign Credit Overview, Fitch Ratings said India's 'BBB-/Negative' sovereign rating "balances a still-strong medium-term growth outlook and external resilience from solid foreign- reserve buffers, against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors". The 'Negative' outlook, it said, reflects uncertainty over the debt trajectory following the sharp deterioration in India's public finances due to the pandemic shock.
With all of the heavy lifting we have done over the past few years, I am confident that we are now well positioned to build on the Tata Group's unique legacy to steer the 21st century towards a more sustainable, connected, inclusive and efficient future: Chandra in email to staff.
Salaries in India are expected to increase by 9.5 per cent in 2024, slightly lower than the actual increase of 9.7 per cent in 2023, largely in response to market dynamics, according to global professional services firm Aon plc. According to the firm's annual salary increase and turnover survey 2023-24 India, that analysed data across 1,414 companies from almost 45 industries, salary increase in India seems to have stabilised at high single digits, after the post-pandemic high increments in 2022. "The projected increase in salaries in the Indian formal sector indicates a strategic adjustment in response to the evolving economic landscape.
According to the external affairs ministry, the prime minister will first visit Hiroshima in Japan from May 19 to 21 to participate in the annual summit of the G7 advanced economies under the Japanese Presidency.
FMCG major Hindustan Unilever on Wednesday reported a 1.53 per cent decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 2,561 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2024 due to factors such as deflation and softening of commodity prices. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 2,601 crore in the year-ago period, according to a regulatory filing from HUL. Net sales of Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) were almost flat to Rs 15,013 crore in the March quarter.
'The coronavirus epidemic highlights the need to start thinking more actively about multilateral coordination, including, but not confined to, health emergencies and climate uncertainties,' says Rathin Roy.
Risk aversion is currently a dominant depressant to economic recovery, points out Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
Majestic cricket milestones mark T20 World Cup journey
Since the last nine years, gold investors have made money each year, while gains in silver have been consistent only in the last five years.
Automobile retail sales in India rose 13 per cent year on year in February with all the segments, including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, witnessing robust offtake, dealers' body FADA said on Thursday. Overall retail sales stood at 20,29,541 units last month as compared to 17,94,866 units in the year-ago period. Passenger vehicle sales grew 12 per cent to 3,30,107 units last month as against 2,93,803 units in February 2023.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
India's real estate market is poised for growth across categories - residential, commercial, and rental. Currently valued at Rs 24 trillion, or about $300 billion, it is projected to surge to $1.3 trillion by 2034, and then grow further to $5.17 trillion by 2047, indicates a report by the Confederation of Real Estate Developers Associations of India (Credai).
Lenders in India, comprising banks and finance companies, anticipate robust growth in retail credit during the upcoming festival season, stretching from September to December 2023. This expectation is based on resilient demand, government initiatives, and elections in key states.
At least five Chinese nationals were among the six persons killed on Tuesday when an explosive-packed vehicle rammed into their bus in Pakistan's troubled northwestern province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, officials said.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
In the Sensex pack, HCLTech rose the maximum by 3.12 per cent, followed by ITC which gained 2.73 per cent and M&M went up 2.61 per cent. TCS climbed 2.44 per cent. Tech Mahindra, Wipro, L&T and Maruti were among the other major gainers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday arrived in Rome, Italy to participate in the G20 Summit where he will join other leaders in discussions on global economic and health recovery from COVID-19, sustainable development and climate change.
The 54-page document tabled in Parliament detailed how the Modi-government pull the economy from being counted among the most fragile-five in the world to being the fasted growing and the most attractive investment destination.
Of the eight RBI governors who have held office since the 1991 economic liberalisation, Bimal Jalan had the longest stint and S Venkitaramanan, the shortest. Current Governor Shaktikanta Das will overtake Bimal Jalan before completing his second term in December, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The size of Reserve Bank's balance sheet increased by 11.08 per cent to Rs 70.47 lakh crore as on March 2024, leading to the highest-ever dividend payout to the government, according to the central bank's annual report. In actual terms, the increase was Rs 7,02,946.97 crore over Rs 63.45 lakh crore as on March 2023.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised India's economic growth estimate for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent pegged earlier, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum. It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year. In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022.
China's post COVID-19 pandemic economic rebound showed signs of slowdown as the economy grew at 7.9 per cent in the second quarter compared to a record 18.3 per cent in Q1, while the GDP expanded 12.7 per cent year on year in the first half amid the continued global spread of the coronavirus and unbalanced domestic recovery. In the second quarter, the GDP of the second largest economy in the world grew 7.9 per cent year on year, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, (NBS) on Thursday showed. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.3 per cent in Q2.
A 'White Paper' versus 'Black Paper' battle erupted on Thursday as the Centre and the Congress unveiled documents and crossed swords over the handling of the Indian economy during the nearly 10 years of the BJP-led NDA rule and the previous 10-year tenure of the Congress-led UPA government.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday marginally lowered the country's GDP growth projection for the current fiscal at 6.8 per cent from its earlier estimate of 7 per cent. However, despite the downward revision in the economic growth projection, India will remain among the fastest growing major economies in the world, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das while announcing the latest bi-monthly monetary policy.
In a post on X, Modi said, "Happy to have welcomed @POTUS @JoeBiden to 7, Lok Kalyan Marg. Our meeting was very productive."
'...which is possible through flexicap and multicap funds.' 'The latter has a better balance between large, mid and smallcap stocks.'
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
US employers stepped up hiring in May in a show of economic resilience that suggests the Federal Reserve could begin to scale back the amount of cash it is pumping into the banking system later this year.
India will drive growth in the Asia-Pacific (Apac) region as the growth engine is likely to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia in the coming years, S&P Global Ratings said in a report on Tuesday. The rating agency's report projected China's growth to slow down to 4.6 per cent by 2026 from an estimated 5.4 per cent in 2023. India is likely to clock 7 per cent economic growth from 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023.
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
